Australia’s property market is roaring back to life, with Brisbane overtaking Melbourne to claim the nation’s second-highest median house price – just one of many surges driven by rate cuts, migration booms, and infrastructure momentum across the capital cities and key regional hubs, according to the latest PIPA National Market Update.

This report pulls together insights and analysis from market experts and PIPA members from the latest edition of the PIPA Adviser e-magazine’s national market update.

PIPA Chair Lachlan Vider said Brisbane’s record median house price of more than $1 million was a landmark moment that caps off a resilient financial year for the city, fueled by low supply, surging migration, and Olympic infrastructure investment.

“Property markets across the country are showing signs of recovery, with interest rate cuts triggering renewed buyer momentum and investors targeting value-rich suburbs in Perth, Adelaide, and select regional hubs,” Mr Vidler said.

“The NSW market in 2025 remains cautiously optimistic, buoyed by interest rate cuts and selective demand in Sydney and regional areas. A-grade assets are performing well, while regional towns with infrastructure and lifestyle appeal continue to offer long-term investment potential.

“Victoria’s property market is regaining confidence, especially in Melbourne’s outer suburbs and regional centres like Geelong. Strong population growth, low vacancy rates, and improving affordability are driving renewed interest despite ongoing supply challenges.”

Mr Vidler said Brisbane leads the nation in property price growth, driven by limited supply, strong migration, and rising investor demand.

“Unit prices and affordable suburbs are attracting both first-home buyers and investors, supported by Olympic infrastructure momentum,” he said.

“Perth remains a standout growth market due to extreme supply shortages and strong population growth, with rapid off-market activity and forecasted price surges. Demand is spreading from houses to well-located units as affordability tightens.”

Adelaide continues its steady climb with low vacancy rates, rising prices, and solid investor interest in coastal and inner suburbs, Mr Vidler said.

“Infrastructure upgrades and relative affordability cement its position as one of the country’s most balanced markets,” he said.

“Hobart is entering a solid recovery phase, led by rising unit demand in inner-city areas and improving sales activity. Regional Tasmania shows early signs of revival, though momentum remains moderate and patchy across various locations.

“Canberra’s market shows subdued but stabilising conditions, with slight value increases and cautious buyer activity post-election uncertainty. Regulatory reforms and infrastructure projects may drive future interest, but high holding costs temper investor appetite.”

NEW SOUTH WALES

Jay Anderson, Property Strategist, Jay Anderson Property

“As we progress through 2025, the New South Wales property market presents a complex yet opportunistic environment for property buyers.

“Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate cut to 4.10% in February and a further cut in May to 3.85%, market sentiment has shown signs of cautious optimism. However, performance varies significantly across regions and property segments.

“The Sydney market continues to show resilience as of June 2025, with modest price growth. Demand is highly selective, with A-grade homes and investment properties attracting strong buyer interest and selling quickly, while lower-quality stock lags behind.

“The rental market remains tight, with rising rents and consistent gross yields, but affordability pressures persist. Supply challenges also continue. Looking ahead, the key factor to watch is the forecasted four interest rate cuts over the next year, which will drive renewed momentum and further fuel buyer activity across Sydney’s property market.

“Regional NSW property market remains steady, supported by continued demand from buyers seeking affordability and lifestyle advantages beyond Sydney. While price growth has moderated compared to previous peaks, many regional centres are still experiencing modest value increases, particularly in locations with strong infrastructure investment and employment opportunities.

“Migration from Sydney continues to drive buyer interest, especially among young families. Overall, while the pace of growth has eased, regional NSW continues to offer attractive long-term fundamentals, particularly in well-connected, economically stable towns with strong rental demand.

“For investors, the current landscape offers opportunities in both metropolitan and regional markets. In Sydney, suburbs that are poised for growth due to infrastructure developments and relative affordability and family homes in premium suburbs are the ones to watch.

“Regionally, towns with strong economic drivers and population growth, such as Albury, Dubbo, and Tweed Shire, present compelling cases for investment.

“Looking ahead, the NSW property market is expected to experience steady growth, supported by low vacancy rates and ongoing demand. However, investors should remain vigilant, as market dynamics continue to evolve with economic conditions.

VICTORIA

Kevin Au, Research & Business Analyst, Buyers Agency, Empower Wealth

“Victoria’s property market is showing signs of renewed strength in mid-2025, buoyed by improving consumer sentiment, easing inflation, recent interest rate cuts, and population growth.

“While global economic uncertainty continues to cast a shadow, local housing confidence is on the rise, and we are seeing this effect particularly in Melbourne’s outer suburbs and regional hubs like Geelong.

“The convergence of growth trends across capital cities is a notable development. The range between the highest and lowest annual change in dwelling values has narrowed significantly, reflecting more uniform market conditions.

“This suggests that previously softer markets like Melbourne are stabilising after years of stagnation due to policy pressures, while the rapid growth seen in mid-sized capitals is easing.

“Investor activity is also picking up with the ABS reporting an 8.8% year-on-year increase in investor housing loan commitments in March 2025, and we expect this upward trend to continue with renewed confidence following the Reserve Bank’s rate cuts in February and May, and further cuts anticipated later this year.

“Melbourne, long considered one of Australia’s most expensive cities, now finds its median dwelling value trailing behind Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth. This relative affordability is drawing increased attention to the city’s western and northern suburbs, where buyers are finding better value and more options.

“Geelong is similarly heating up. Local agents report that demand has risen to the point where sale by auction, once rare, is becoming the norm. This is mainly evident in the lower price tier, which continues to lead growth results across most cities.

“Vacancy rates remain historically low. Our internal data shows Melbourne’s vacancy rate at just 1% in May 2025, down from its peak 2.2% during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Despite the federal government’s ambitious target of 1.2 million new dwellings over five years, Victoria’s share of roughly 60,000 new homes per year may not be enough to ease supply constraints.

“High construction costs and labour shortages continue to hamper new development, keeping pressure on both prices and rental markets. Combined with the latest population data showing solid overall net population inflows, we expect rental demand to remain strong.

“As 2025 unfolds, Victoria’s real estate market appears to be entering a new phase – one of cautious optimism and strategic buying in affordable pockets. While challenges remain, particularly around supply and construction, the demand fundamentals suggest a market that has stabilised and poised for renewed growth.”

QUEENSLAND

Joanna Boyd, Director, Joanna Boyd Buyers Advocate

“Brisbane has finished the financial year on a high note, continuing to stand out among Australia’s capital cities for its robust property market performance. 

“Despite the impact of inflationary pressure, interest rate uncertainty, and high cost-of-living concerns, Brisbane’s housing sector has remained remarkably resilient, driven by low supply, strong migration, and rising interest in the first home buyer and investor sectors.

“According to Cotality, Brisbane’s median house price crossed $1 million for the first time, settling at $1,000,422. Apartment values have also climbed significantly, with the median unit price now being $709,823. The city is now Australia’s second-most expensive capital city property market by median price, sitting behind only Sydney.

“Year on year, Brisbane’s median house price has surged by 6.2%, while the unit market saw an extraordinary increase of 11.8%. Demand for units has risen due to the difference in affordability between houses and units, with increased interest in the sub-$700,000 bracket close to the CBD by first-time buyers and investors.

“Demand remains strong for houses in the more affordable or high-growth markets, supported by a mixture of owner-occupiers and investors seeking value in a stabilising interest rate environment.

“Investor activity and enquiry levels picked up significantly when the RBA reduced the interest rate in May. New lending to investors in Queensland has reached record highs, and data from PropTrack confirms that 27% of buyer enquiries now come from interstate.

“Rental conditions remained tight throughout the year, with vacancy rates hovering at approximately one per cent. Rental markets remain tight due to a combination of low vacancy rates, strong population growth, and ongoing constraints in new housing supply. 

“Brisbane’s continued rent growth reflects both population inflows and an undersupply of rental stock.  This mismatch between supply and demand means rental pressures are unlikely to ease in the near future, especially in well-located, family friendly suburbs or high-demand school catchments.
“Looking forward, the key themes shaping Brisbane’s housing market are unlikely to change quickly. A persistent undersupply of homes, strong population growth, and a new wave of first-home buyers and investors are expected to keep upward pressure on prices. 

“The city will also continue to benefit from infrastructure investment and the long-term pipeline associated with the 2032 Olympic Games. While some moderation may occur if interest rates fall further or supply improves, the city’s core fundamentals remain strong, positioning Brisbane once again as a standout performer going into the 2025–26 financial year.”

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

David McMillan, Director, Performance Property

“Perth remains one of the most compelling growth markets in the country, supported by favourable borrowing conditions and extreme supply and demand issues. Based on current data, the Perth median house price is forecasted to exceed $1 million in 2026, with further gains expected over the subsequent two to four years.

“Tight supply continues to be a defining feature of the Perth market. Days on market are sitting at an exceptionally low 11 days, reflecting the intense buyer competition. Notably, over 50% of Performance Property’s current deals are occurring off-market, indicating that the true supply shortage is even more acute than headline figures indicate.

“The rental market tells a similar story, with the vacancy rate remaining critically low at 0.7%. While approximately 18,000 new dwellings are expected to be delivered in 2026, this falls significantly short of need.

“Perth added over 70,000 people to its population last year alone, which is the equivalent of about 27,000 households. This growing imbalance means that the pressure on housing supply is only set to intensify.

“Affordability, though beginning to tighten, is still moderately below historical peaks. Rate cuts anticipated in the coming year will improve borrowing capacity and support continued growth. WA lending activity also remains strong. Whilst lending activity is not at 2021 record highs, lending is still higher than pre-COVID levels and even tracking higher than in 2023.

“While houses are leading the charge, we are also forecasting strong growth in the unit market. The same supply and demand issues apply, but as affordability becomes more constrained, demand will shift toward well-located, high-quality units.

“This shift is expected to result in an opportunity for capital growth for buyers priced out of the housing market.”

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Jess Ellam, Buyers’ Agent & QPIA, Elam Property
“Adelaide has once again demonstrated its strength as one of Australia’s most stable and resilient property markets.

“Steady population growth, tight housing supply, and consistently high rental demand have supported ongoing price growth across the city.

“CoreLogic data shows Adelaide dwelling values rose 8.6% over the past 12 months. Unit values surged 18.5%, reflecting increasing demand from buyers seeking affordability and flexibility, while house prices climbed 15.1%, driven by low supply and strong buyer competition for well-located homes.

“The market remains highly competitive, with listing volumes well below average and a city-wide vacancy rate of just 0.7% – among the lowest in the country. As a result, rents have continued to rise, particularly in fringe and coastal suburbs. In Southern Adelaide, house rents jumped over 12%, and units rose by more than 8%, according to SQM Research.

“This has reignited investor interest. Over the past year, I’ve worked with a growing number of local and interstate investors targeting high-performing suburbs like Plympton, Glengowrie, Seaton, and areas along the southern coastline. These locations offer a strong combination of growth history, attractive yields, and future infrastructure upside.

“Despite consistent value increases, Adelaide still presents relative affordability, especially for buyers within 10-15km of the CBD. Purchasing quality property under $1 million remains a distinct advantage of our market.

“Ongoing infrastructure investment continues to support long-term confidence. Major projects such as the Torrens to Darlington (T2D) upgrade are reshaping key transport corridors and enhancing the appeal of previously underappreciated suburbs.

“Looking ahead, many economists are anticipating potential interest rate cuts from the RBA, which could bring renewed momentum from buyers. Market sentiment remains strong, and the imbalance between supply and demand suggests upward pressure on both property values and rents will persist.

“For investors, strong yields and low vacancy rates offer an attractive opportunity. For homebuyers and upgraders, timing and decisiveness will be key in an increasingly competitive environment.

“While Adelaide’s growth may not always make headlines, it remains steady and sustainable, supported by strong underlying factors. This makes it one of the most balanced markets in the country heading into FY 2025–26.”

TASMANIA

Terry Ryder, Director, Hotspotting

“Hotspotting is always on the lookout for the locations we call “second wind markets”: places that have had major growth in the recent past but have been on pause for a couple of years and now are showing signs of another growth phase.

“These are places that offer opportunities to buy well, ahead of the pack. In the past six months, we have identified key markets in Tasmania as classic second wind opportunities, including Launceston and Burnie.

“Hobart and Regional Tasmania have been among the nation’s leading markets over the past 20 years. PIPA research published last year identified Regional Tasmania as the No.1 jurisdiction for growth in house prices over the past two decades, with Hobart ranked No.3.

“Our latest edition of The Price Predictor Index recorded an emphatic upturn in the Hobart market with 63% of locations receiving positive rankings for sales activity trends. And there are signs that some parts of the Regional Tasmania market are stirring also.

“More buyers are opting for attached dwellings as a lifestyle choice or for affordability and this is delivering notable sales activity outcomes across Australia. In Tasmania, the unit market in the inner-city suburb of Sandy Bay is at the forefront of the Hobart revival.

“The Tasmanian capital is moving strongly into recovery. Hobart showed significant signs of revival in our previous survey three months ago and this new survey confirms that trend, with a significant further rise in sales activity.

“In our previous (Autumn 2025) edition, we commented that Hobart was starting to stir. Since then, Hobart has improved further with a 13% rise in sales activity in the latest quarter and is now 18% higher than the same time last year. Now 63% of markets have positive rankings and only 23% are negative (and those with negative classifications have reduced from 57% to 26% to 23% in consecutive quarters).

“The inner-city unit market and suburbs with affordable houses, including Glenorchy, Claremont, Moonah and Sorell, are at the forefront of the Hobart resurgence.

“The regional areas of Tasmania are trying to accelerate but the handbrake remains on. Regional Tasmania has shown some improvement from the previous quarter, with sales activity up 7% on the previous quarter and 5% higher than the same time last year.

“Now 43% of markets have positive rankings, up from 40% in the previous quarter – and now positive markets outnumber negative ones. But there’s not yet evidence of a full- blown recovery and in this regard, Regional Tasmania is lagging behind Hobart.

“The Launceston market is showing signs of revival (quarterly sales 183, 188, 196, 165, 191) but remains somewhat patchy. Regional Tasmania locations with rising sales trends include George Town, Huonville and Riverside near Launceston but most locations remain in second gear.”

ACT

Claire Corby, Director, Capital Buyers Agency

“Canberra’s property market has moved through the past financial year in a very sedate manner. Dwelling values declined overall by -0.7% in the year to May 2025 (CoreLogic), with house prices recording a gentle monthly uptick of 0.5% at the tail end of the financial year. Values still remain approximately 6% below their peaks of the mid-2022 era.

“Vacancy rates continue to hover between 1.5% and 1.8%. The ACT Government’s latest budget will continue to nudge the pressure for landlords with higher costs and increased compliance measures.

“The ACT budget confirmed increases across the board, with many suburbs seeing jumps of up to 11% in general rates. New rental certificates are now in place, and marginal land tax changes will bite for higher-value properties, in particular, where land values exceed $1 million.

“Combined with increased compliance and regulations, holding costs are clearly trending upwards for ACT landlords as the ACT Government tries to claw revenue to offset a deficit which now exceeds $1.1billion.

“Investor appetite has softened as a result, with many yield-seeking buyers turning their attention elsewhere. On the demand side of the equation, the fiscal year began cautiously.

“The Federal Election uncertainty and elevated interest rates kept sentiment subdued into early 2025, which particularly impacted Canberra after Liberal announced 41,000 public sector jobs in Canberra would be on the chopping block, if elected.

“The RBA’s first interest rate cut in February gave the market a small boost, notably in the sub-$1 million bracket. Here, first-home buyers re-entered the scene buoyed by lower repayments and access to ACT stamp duty concessions, helping fuel four consecutive months now of, albeit small, but positive price growth.

“Looking ahead, recovery appears to be the theme for FY25-26. Stable public-sector employment and sustained infrastructure delivery supports a neutral-to-mildly positive outlook.

“The ACT Government, now entering its 24th consecutive year with Labor in power, continues its expansion of the light rail infrastructure. The next leg promises to link Civic with Woden as construction makes its way across the lake towards the Parliamentary Triangle.

“On the planning front, proposed zoning reforms could bring more “missing middle” housing to the market. But without addressing prohibitively high Lease Variation Charges and the need for developer licences on ‘Mum and Dad’ landowners, the impact of these proposals will be hamstrung at best.

“Land-banking investors who are comfortable to speculate on residential real estate with high holding costs may do well to hedge their bets and secure prime residential land before the masses arrive.

“While the year ahead may bring modern changes to suburban Canberra, it’s expected that regulatory change will be gradual and possibly diluted once enacted.”

ENDS

Bricks & Mortar Media | media@bricksandmortarmedia.com.au